Balıkesir Earthquake Preparedness 2026: Building Surveys and Urban Renewal

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المسافر

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📍 Last updated: 7 September 2026

Balıkesir's earthquake-preparedness work in 2026 combines building information, ground conditions, seismic monitoring and urban-renewal priorities. Following seismic activity around Sındırgı, the need is to understand risk before a disaster: the ground, the buildings, and the ability of neighbourhoods, roads and services to function during an emergency.

🧭 Why a local approach matters​

The province has 20 districts with different soils, building densities, construction ages and settlement patterns. The Karesi–Altıeylül centre, industrial Bandırma, Gönen–Manyas–Erdek, the Aegean coast, inland Sındırgı–Bigadiç–Dursunbey and the islands each present different needs.

A general hazard map must be considered alongside local ground conditions, individual buildings, population and essential services.

🔍 Three connected strands​

BAYES: a digital inventory of existing buildings to identify areas needing more detailed assessment.

BALDEP: a project with TÜBİTAK Marmara Research Center to study seismic hazard, ground conditions and areas with potential for liquefaction.

Urban-renewal planning: turning technical evidence into suitable strengthening, rebuilding or area-improvement projects.

Each has a different role. A building survey does not describe every ground condition, and a ground study does not establish every building's structural quality. Renewal also requires clear ownership and legal arrangements.

🏢 What is BAYES?​

The Balıkesir Yapı Envanter Sistemi builds a database of the province's building stock using 360-degree panoramic imaging and LiDAR vehicles, supplemented by field visits and applications for buildings that cannot be adequately recorded from a vehicle.

Specialist engineers review the records to understand building distribution, compare neighbourhoods, select areas for detailed studies, prioritise renewal, support emergency planning and connect building information with ground studies.

🔢 Stage 1: approximately 150,000 buildings​

The municipal update reports an inventory of about 150,000 buildings in Altıeylül, Karesi, Bandırma, Erdek, Gönen, Manyas, Edremit and Burhaniye.

Completion means an initial broad picture of the building stock. It does not mean all surveyed buildings are dangerous or that all have passed a structural safety test.

🛰️ Stage 2: approximately 90,000 more​

Starting from Dursunbey, the next stage is intended to cover around 90,000 buildings in eleven district centres:

  1. Dursunbey.
  2. Kepsut.
  3. Sındırgı.
  4. Bigadiç.
  5. Savaştepe.
  6. Susurluk.
  7. İvrindi.
  8. Balya.
  9. Havran.
  10. Gömeç.
  11. Ayvalık.

Extending the inventory beyond the largest centres is important for older or dispersed building stock as well.

⚠️ What does a surveyed building mean?​

Being listed in BAYES does not automatically mean a building is safe, resistant to every possible earthquake, laboratory-tested, covered by a detailed seismic-performance report, scheduled for demolition, or legally designated a risky building.

A rapid survey is a screening and prioritisation tool. An individual assessment may examine plans, age, structural system, concrete and reinforcement, alterations and the ground beneath the property.

🌍 BALDEP: understanding the ground​

In March 2026, the municipality reported non-destructive measurements at 450 points within built-up areas, supporting analysis of ground conditions and potential liquefaction. (Scientific safe-city panel)

Such work investigates variation in shaking, possible soil amplification, liquefaction potential, the studies required for planning and construction, and how renewal priorities relate to sensitive ground.

A regional ground map does not replace a site-specific geotechnical investigation. Conditions can vary even within one neighbourhood.
Click to expand...

📡 Seismic monitoring stations​

The municipality announced BALDEP stations at Sındırgı–Düvertepe, Bigadiç–Çağış and Karesi–Çamlıktepe. They support long-term monitoring and the combination of new and historical data. (Monitoring-station announcement)

Stations record earthquakes, track seismic patterns and aftershocks, and improve hazard modelling and research. They do not predict an earthquake's date and time.

🏙️ Turning data into renewal​

An evidence-based process can include:
  1. A building inventory.
  2. Ground and seismic-hazard studies.
  3. Identification of higher-priority neighbourhoods.
  4. Detailed assessments of priority buildings.
  5. Selection of an appropriate solution.
  6. Discussions with owners and other rights holders.
  7. Plans, finance and implementation stages.
  8. Housing and services during the works.
  9. Quality control of new construction.

Some buildings may need strengthening, others rebuilding; some areas may also need redesigned roads, open spaces and infrastructure.

⚖️ Renewal involves more than demolition​

An August 2026 municipal discussion brought together legal, engineering and planning expertise on ownership, rights, contracts, agreement and public institutions. (Urban-renewal conference)

A sound process needs engineering safety, legal clarity, fairness, transparent priorities, public benefit, adequate roads and services, and consideration of residents' social ties. Replacing a building without addressing narrow access roads, water networks or evacuation routes does not make the whole neighbourhood resilient.

📍 Gönen: a fieldwork example​

The municipality's 11 August 2026 update described completion of the central Gönen inventory: LiDAR recording, engineering review, identification and site visits for buildings not adequately captured, and entry of missing details through a dedicated application. The next task is analysis to select areas needing deeper study. (Gönen inventory update)

🧱 Checks before buying property​

Documents: title, building permit, occupancy authorisation, conformity with approved plans, and unauthorised additions or alterations.

Building condition: construction year, structural system, storeys, cracks or settlement, removed walls or columns, ground-floor shop alterations, and documented previous strengthening.

Ground: site-specific geotechnical reports, possible liquefaction or settlement, groundwater, planning and hazard maps, and nearby streams or flood areas.

Independent assessment: where there is doubt, use an independent structural engineer or authorised body. A seller's or estate agent's opinion is not a structural safety report.

🏠 What tenants can do​

Ask about construction year and permits; know stairs and exits; keep escape routes clear; avoid heavy furniture above sleeping areas; secure cupboards and large appliances; agree a family meeting point; keep a torch, battery and essential medicines accessible; know how to isolate gas, power and water; and follow AFAD and municipal advice rather than unverified messages.

🎒 An emergency bag​

Adapt a light, accessible bag to household needs. Include water and non-perishable food, a torch and batteries, power bank, small radio if practical, whistle, first-aid supplies, essential medicines, copies of important documents, some cash, suitable clothing and a blanket, supplies for children or older relatives, and family contact numbers.

Check expiry dates regularly and keep the bag somewhere reachable after shaking. AFAD's emergency-bag guidance provides a useful checklist.

🚧 Priorities through 2030​

  1. Complete inventories across the districts.
  2. Publish understandable general findings without exposing owners' personal data.
  3. Connect BAYES with BALDEP and ground studies.
  4. Assess priority buildings in detail.
  5. Make renewal-selection criteria transparent.
  6. Protect owners' and tenants' rights.
  7. Strengthen hospitals, schools and essential facilities.
  8. Keep emergency routes and assembly areas open.
  9. Improve water, gas and communications networks.
  10. Monitor construction quality.
  11. Run regular evacuation exercises.
  12. Plan specifically for islands and rural areas.

✅ From data to practical action​

BAYES records buildings; BALDEP studies ground and hazard; renewal plans should turn evidence into action. Surveying 150,000 buildings does not label them all unsafe, nor does a database entry certify safety. The value lies in detailed follow-up, stronger essential facilities, transparent priorities and better roads, services and assembly spaces.


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