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Industrial Production and Capacity Utilisation in Türkiye: Reading Factory Activity in 2026A report of “rising factory output” differs from one of “rising capacity utilisation”. The first concerns industrial production volumes; the second concerns how much physical production capacity is being used by manufacturing establishments covered by a survey. The indicators may move together or diverge for understandable reasons. Reading them together can give a fuller picture of activity, provided you distinguish a percentage rate from a volume index and check the reference periods before comparing the latest month with an earlier one.
This is a specialist reading guide for 2026, rather than a report of the latest monthly result. Every calculation below is hypothetical. It explains how to select a series, read sectors and adjustments, and write an interpretation limited to what the data establish. Neither indicator predicts a share’s performance or guarantees a company’s profits.
An archive photograph of the entrance to Arçelik’s factory in Bolu.
1. Two indicators, two different questionsThe Industrial Production Index, Sanayi Üretim Endeksi, is published by the Turkish Statistical Institute, TÜİK, to measure changes in production volumes in the covered industrial activities. Its metadata identify mining, manufacturing and electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply as the broad sectors covered, subject to the published activity exclusions. “Industry” should therefore not be treated automatically as manufacturing alone, or expanded to include construction and all services.
The central bank’s Manufacturing Industry Capacity Utilisation Rate, İmalat Sanayi Kapasite Kullanım Oranı, concerns the use of physical capacity in manufacturing, based on the Business Tendency Survey. Respondents assess current utilisation from their knowledge of their establishments; it is not a separate census of completed output for the whole month. The different publishers are not merely two names for the same source: coverage, units and collection methods differ. Manufacturing output offers the closest shared scope for comparison. State explicitly when comparing the broader industrial index with the manufacturing utilisation rate.
2. What does a volume index mean?An index level of 120 does not mean that industry used 120% of its capacity, or that 120 factories were operating. It is a level relative to the statistical reference defined for the series. In tables labelled 2021=100, the displayed reference is that year’s average under the index definition. Percentage changes describe the movement between two periods.
In a hypothetical example, an index rises from 110 to 115.5. The increase is 5%, rather than 5.5%, because the change is divided by the earlier level. The numerical difference is 5.5 index points. Do not reverse the fraction or confuse index points with percentage-point changes in a utilisation rate. A headline reporting 5% growth also cannot be turned into an index level of 105 without knowing the reference-period level. Levels and changes perform different roles in interpreting a story.
3. What does capacity utilisation mean?Capacity is the output possible using the available physical resources under the survey definition; utilisation is the portion being used in the reference period. As a simplified hypothetical calculation, an establishment capable of producing 2,000 units a month produces 1,500, giving utilisation of 75%. This is neither a profit margin, a worker-employment rate nor the proportion of machines operating at the moment someone visits the factory.
If capacity itself changes, the rate takes on a different meaning. Adding a line that raises possible output to 2,500 units, while actual output remains 1,500, reduces utilisation to 60% without any fall in the quantity produced. Bringing a new line fully into use may take time. Do not therefore write that every fall in utilisation means an equal percentage decline in output. Examine the denominator, then use other indicators to assess the explanation.
4. Sources, collection methods and weightsOfficial production metadata describe the use of monthly survey information and administrative records, with price effects removed to obtain a volume measure. This is not a process of manually counting units of every product and adding them without weights. Products differ, as do detailed methods by activity. The metadata linked to the series you download are the best reference for those details.
Capacity-utilisation responses are also weighted, rather than averaged equally across a huge factory and a small workshop. In a simplified exercise, a large factory has nine times the weight of a small one. With utilisation of 80% and 50%, respectively, the weighted average is 77%, compared with a simple average of 65%. These figures do not reproduce the official survey weights. They explain why asking two local establishments cannot establish the national rate.
5. The reference month is not the publication dayA utilisation reading can be published before its reference month ends, while industrial output takes time to compile and release after the month has finished. The latest available observations may consequently concern different months. Appearing in the news during the same week does not make them economically simultaneous.
Keep a record of the indicator name, activity month, publication date, adjustment and measurement unit. Suppose you have September utilisation and July production. You can describe two signals from different periods, but cannot call them matching evidence of factories’ September conditions. To compare their movements, wait for production data for the same period or choose an earlier date for which both readings are available. The release’s reference month matters more than the day someone forwards it in a messaging app.
6. Monthly, annual and seasonal comparisonsFor month-on-month industrial-production comparisons, look for the seasonally and calendar-adjusted series. For year-on-year comparisons, check the adjustment specified in the release. Working days, holidays and routine maintenance can affect unadjusted levels. Adjustment helps reveal movements, but remains a statistical estimate subject to the series’ revision policy, rather than a magical removal of every unusual event.
Imagine unadjusted production rising from 100 to 108, while the adjusted index moves from 103 to 104. The raw jump is larger because part of it reflects the expected pattern for that period. The adjusted series is not simply “the true figure”, with the unadjusted one wrong: each answers a different question. When comparing three months, do not simply add monthly growth rates. You can average levels at a consistent frequency, explaining the method, then compare those averages instead of selecting one month to suit a conclusion.
A quick comparison| Reading | Unit or scope | What should you check? |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial production | Volume index for covered industry | Mining, manufacturing, energy and reference period |
| Manufacturing production | Part of the industrial-production scope | Shared coverage with manufacturing capacity utilisation |
| Capacity utilisation | Percentage of manufacturing capacity in use | Changes in capacity itself and the reference month |
| Change in utilisation | Percentage-point difference between two rates | Distinction from a relative percentage change |
A textile-chemicals factory in Istanbul, in an archive photograph.
7. When the indicators agree, and when they divergeRising production alongside rising utilisation is consistent with stronger activity within the shared period and coverage, but does not identify its cause. The reason might be domestic or export demand, stock rebuilding or recovery after a stoppage. Divergence calls for further investigation, rather than choosing a preferred indicator and dismissing the other.
Consider four hypothetical combinations: higher output and utilisation; higher output but lower utilisation; lower output but higher utilisation; or declines in both. The second could reflect capacity expansion, while the third could reflect reduced capacity or differences in sectors and timing. These are analytical possibilities, not findings established by the two indicators alone. Consult investment, order and inventory data where available, and review sample changes. Write “could be explained by” until specific evidence supports the explanation, instead of “was definitely caused by”.
8. Sectors and goods groupsThe aggregate is a useful starting point, but industries do not all move together. Published tables allow examination of subsectors and goods groups, such as intermediate, capital or consumer goods. A decline in one activity is not a decline in the whole industrial sector, while aggregate growth does not establish that every product recovered.
In a teaching example, two activities have weights of 80% and 20%, and grow by 1% and 10%, respectively. The simplified weighted rate is 2.8%, neither 11% nor 5.5%. This illustrates weighting only; it does not replace the official index aggregation method. If a table of contributions to the index change is available, use it to distinguish a fast-growing activity from one driving the aggregate movement. Retain activity codes alongside classification names, so that linguistically similar products are not merged despite belonging to different statistical categories.
9. Percentage points and small changesIf hypothetical utilisation rises from 74% to 75%, the increase is one percentage point. The relative increase in the rate is approximately 1.35%. Using the second expression without explanation can exaggerate the impression of the news. Calling the change “1% of capacity” also confuses the rate’s level with its movement.
Small production changes may be sensitive to rounding or later revisions. Avoid building a broad interpretation on the difference between two figures rounded to one decimal place without checking underlying levels when necessary. If a sector fluctuates because of maintenance stoppages or the start-up of a large project, read earlier months and annual comparisons before describing a lasting trend. A trend needs a time context; one month is an observation, not a guarantee of the months ahead.
10. Inventories, sales and employmentProduction is not sales. A factory may increase output to build stocks ahead of a season, or sell existing inventory while cutting current production. Working hours may change before employee numbers, and productivity may improve without a matching rise in jobs. Industrial-output growth should therefore not be converted directly into a claim of higher company profits or workers’ wages.
In a hypothetical scenario, a factory produces 1,000 units and sells 900, adding 100 to inventory if other factors are ignored. The following month it produces 900 and sells 1,000, drawing on stocks. Sales have risen and production has fallen, with no arithmetic contradiction. To interpret the sector, seek orders, stocks, employment and sales data for the relevant period. A single company’s figures do not automatically represent all businesses covered by the index.
11. Revisions and changes in reference yearPreviously published production figures can change when late information arrives, seasonal adjustments are updated or methodology changes. Download all required months together and save a dated copy. Do not combine a recent series on one reference basis with older points from a news screenshot using another basis, then calculate a change as if they formed one measurement.
A simple revision record might contain: “activity month; first reading; latest reading; release date; note”. If hypothetical monthly growth changes from 0.2% to 0.4%, record a difference of 0.2 percentage points. Factories did not produce that additional growth on the day of the revision. For utilisation, consult the implementation-change document and survey coverage instead of assuming the same revision practice applies. An unchanged percentage unit does not guarantee unchanged coverage across every year. The current utilisation metadata distinguish this series from production: late survey responses are not incorporated and published results are not revised retrospectively. Seasonally adjusted models and parameters are reviewed annually without backward revisions to the series.
12. A practical method for checking and summarising the newsOpen the industrial-production release and tables in TÜİK’s portal, choosing the release for your research period. Official production metadata help establish scope, units and revisions. Then open the CBRT capacity-utilisation page, including its data, metadata and implementation changes. The central bank’s plain-language explanation of productive capacity can also help. A methodological reference’s date does not make it the latest monthly result: choose the period first.
Begin the summary with the indicator name, reference period, comparison and adjustment, then add a sector result if documented. For example, without real figures: “Industrial production improved month on month in the adjusted series, while manufacturing capacity utilisation moved differently over the same period; explaining the divergence requires examining sectors and changes in capacity.” Do not substitute “boom” or “collapse” for evidence the table does not provide. Retain the original links so readers can review your interpretation.
13. Frequently asked questionsDoes a production index of 120 mean output exceeds full capacity?
No. It is an index level relative to its reference. The utilisation rate is a percentage of physical capacity, with a different definition. Check the units before comparing or commenting on the two figures.
Does lower utilisation confirm that factory output fell?
Not always. Capacity may grow faster than output, and periods or coverage may differ. Check the denominator and scope, then seek evidence for the movement rather than assuming a single cause.
Is industrial production the same as economic growth?
No. The economy includes activities beyond this index. Use it to understand industry, then consult national accounts if the question concerns GDP.
Why do annual and monthly comparisons differ?
Their comparison points differ, and their adjustments may differ too. Production can remain above the previous year’s level while falling from the preceding month. Identify both comparisons clearly if discussing them together.
Does the national rate represent a factory in Trabzon?
Not necessarily. A weighted national reading does not describe every establishment or city, and the documentation specifies the available detail. Do not invent a local result from an aggregate that provides no geographical breakdown.
Does higher production mean higher profits?
Profits depend on revenue, costs, financing and other factors. Quantities may rise while profitability falls. Establishing a company’s profits requires its financial statements, rather than an industry-wide indicator.
Which series should I use to compare consecutive months?
For industrial production, begin with the seasonally and calendar-adjusted series and read the release notes. Use matching periods and scope, and retain the download date to identify the data version underlying your comparison.
14. Factory-activity checklist- Name production volumes and capacity utilisation separately, with their units.
- Match activity months; do not substitute publication days.
- Check the difference between total industry and manufacturing coverage.
- Choose the appropriate adjustment; do not compare an unadjusted level with an adjusted one.
- Distinguish index points, percentage points and relative percentage changes.
- Read sectors, weights and contributions to the aggregate where available.
- Check stocks and orders before explaining a difference between production and sales.
- Save the series version, revision notes and original table links.
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